Sub-theme leader
Akira Hibiki (Tohoku University)
Outline
We aim to develop a methodology to assess the economic impact of temperature rise due to climate change on the agricultural sector and human health, and the effectiveness of the adaptation policy against these negative impacts.
Firstly, we will develop three economic models to evaluate the impact on the agricultural sector:
- A farmer’s income model will analyze the impact of weather conditions, such as temperature and precipitation, on the incomes of farmers.
- A land use model for each crop will analyze how weather conditions affect crop choice and land use.
- A 47 prefectural agricultural model will analyze how the impact of weather conditions on one prefecture spills over to other prefectures.
Using these models, we will run a simulation to explore the impact of future climate change on the regional economy (city-level or prefecture-level) and the effectiveness of the adaptation policy.
Secondly, we will develop a health damage model to explore the impact of climate change on human health, such as heatstroke, incorporating the effects of economic, regional, and social factors. We will then simulate the impact of future climate change on human health.
Goals
- Developing three agricultural models to explore the economic impacts of climate change on the agricultural sector
- Developing a health damage model to explore the health impact of temperature rise
- Exploring the regional (city-level/prefecture-level) impacts of climate change by simulation analysis using the models developed
Target items
- Farmer’s income for each city: farmer’s income model
We will estimate the parameters of the variables in the model by using city-level panel data from the past 30 years and construct the model. We will then run a simulation to analyze the impact of future climate change on farmers’ incomes for each city. - Farmland area of each crop: land use model
We will estimate the parameters of the variables in the land use model using city-level panel data from the past 30 years and construct the model. We will then simulate the impact of future climate change on the land use of each crop in each city. - Production in the agricultural sector, manufacturing sectors, and service sectors: 47 prefectural agricultural models
We will develop a 47 prefectural agricultural model using a computable general equilibrium approach. We will then use this model to explore how the impact of climate change on some prefectures spills over into other prefectures. - Mortality rate: health damage model
We will estimate the parameters of the variables in the model by using city-level panel data from the past 30 years and construct the model. We will then run a simulation to analyze the impact of climate change on the mortality rate in each city.
Adaptation options
- Change of cultivation period
- Change of crop choice from less resilient crops to more temperature-resilient crops
- Take measures to lower temperature by mitigation of the heat-island phenomenon