Sub-theme leader
Naoki Ishitsuka (National Agriculture and Food Research Organization)
Summary
We will develop a protocol to evaluate the impacts of climate change on multiple sectors by using statistical methods and machine learning methods. These sectors include agriculture, forestry, fisheries, water environment, natural disasters, industrial activities, and people’s lives. Using this protocol, the impact assessment will be conducted at the national level by quantifying the uncertainties of the impact assessment. We will also evaluate the effect of possible adaptation measures using a data-driven method. We will organize a series of findings into a manual and lay the groundwork for local government officials to statistically analyze future climate change impacts.
Target
- Comparing multiple statistical and machine learning methods and evaluating the characteristics of each method for impact assessment. Developing an integrated protocol using statistical and machine learning methods for evaluating the impact of climate change.
- Evaluating the effect of adaptive measures using historical data.
- Conducting an impact assessment at the national level using the developed protocol.
- Organizing a series of findings into a manual that can be available for impact assessment at the local level.
Plan
- Evaluating the impact of climate change on crop yield (approximately 100 species).
- Evaluating the relationship between climate change and the cost of flood damage.
- Evaluating the relationship between climate change and water quality.
- Developing an index for biodiversity to be used for impact assessment.
- Comparing multiple statistical and machine learning methods for impact assessment.
Adaptation measures
- Change of crop species
- Infrastructure development