【Sub-theme 1(1)】Development of Framework and Fundamental Information for Comprehensive Research on Evaluation of Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation

Sub-theme leader

Nobuo Mimura (Ibaraki University)

Outline

Sub-theme 1(1) will coordinate the entire project, arrange basic information, and transmit the research achievements in Japan and globally. By establishing general meetings, advisory meetings, and cross-thematic working groups, Sub-theme 1(1) systematically promotes the entire S-18 project. In addition, common climate scenarios, socio-economic scenarios, and adaptation scenarios will be prepared and provided. While contributing to international efforts such as the IPCC seventh assessment report (AR7) and the Paris Agreement, Theme 1 will promote research exchanges and dialogues with other research projects and society in order to understand the impact profile throughout Japan.

Goals

• Coordinating role for the entire S-18 project.
• Arranging and providing the latest climate and socioeconomic adaptation scenarios for impact projection and evaluation of adaptation.
• Presenting knowledge on the features of climate change impact and ideal ways of adaptation measures in Japan.
• Disseminating the research results to Japanese society (national, local, and regional levels), and internationally.

Target items

• Developing and promoting a framework for all research in the S-18 project.
  Sub-theme 1(1) manages the progress of each research item by coordinating each Theme and Sub-theme to achieve the research objectives of S-18. We will hold an annual general meeting, advisory meeting, and public or international symposium each year. We will also organize steering meetings and cross-thematic working groups. In the second and fourth years, reports of projections of climate change impacts and evaluation of adaptation will be published.
• Arrangement of common scenarios.
  Sub-theme 1(1) will make best use of the latest climate and socio-economic scenarios as common scenarios for the S-18 project. We will then provide the common scenarios for each Theme. In order to meet the individual demands of Sub-themes, a high-resolution climate scenario will be prepared by hybrid downscaling of both statistical methods and mechanical methods using regional climate models. We will create adaptation scenarios, including the types of adaptation measures, combinations of options for each sector and more, in cooperation with all Themes and Sub-themes.

• Contribute to international efforts against the IPCC AR7 and the Paris Agreement
  In the Paris Agreement, its effectiveness will be confirmed by the Global Stocktake every five years starting from 2023. The Global Stocktake method for adaptation measures has been little developed, and we will, therefore, examine the framework for evaluation of adaptation measures in the comprehensive research on the evaluation of climate change impacts and adaptation. We will also communicate these achievements to the international discussion.
• Active research exchanges with other research projects and dialogue with society.
  We will integrate the results of this S-18 project with other projects, to determine the impact profile throughout Japan. We aim to create effective scientific knowledge by determining the needs of local governments to contribute to the formulation and implementation of adaptation plans. For such exchanges and collaboration, we will hold research exchange meetings with other projects and discussion meetings with the local governments, the media, and companies.

Adaptation options

• Sub-theme 1(1), in cooperation with each theme and sub-theme, plans to create adaptation scenarios by considering types and combinations of adaptation measures, rather than focusing Individual adaptation measures.